Strategy: Half Time / Full Time result

This bet is self explanatory I guess. You are trying to predict what  the result of the match is at half time and at full time. There are 9  different outcomes.

Guess what? BetFormPro can be used to profile matches in this market  for more solid opportunities to take money from the evil bookies and  spent it on the one you love J

The Half Time / Full Time market is one of the most popular markets,  you should have no trouble finding it with whatever bookmaker you use.

As with all my trades I like to break it down into concise sections.

• Analysis
• Find the value
• Get the best price
• Confirmation – have I missed anything?

A growing number of savvy soccer punters who want to take their  betting to the next level are discovering the awesome power of  Betformpro. It’s incredible profiling software. We grade the teams  according to their league standings. This gives unrivalled accuracy and  provides a real edge in finding the all important “value” in selections.

So let’s fire up the old gal and see what treasures she will reveal to us. (Open BetformPro)

I am going to interrogate the maximum number of games possible for  this market. It goes without saying the more data you can look at the  more reliable the sample.

The graphic below shows The screen – The circled sections are the  settings I changed to achieve each of the series of results. This is  AvA, but you will need to do all of the combinations of grades. AvB, AvC  etc.

fig #1

As you can see under the Half Time / Full Time tab the raw stats are displayed.

The best way to take advantage of rows and rows of stats on different  pages and from different sources is to visualise them. That is turn  them into a spreadsheet/chart/graph so you can make sense of the  information you have at your disposal. Don’t underestimate what a  powerful tool this can be. I have created a simple spreadsheet to  collate all of the information that the BetFormPro “research it” tool  provided me.

fig #2

fig #3

Now we have all of this fabulous information at our fingertips… what  are we going to do with it? More importantly how are we going to use it  to make some money?

First we need to call up the fixture list of the league we are  looking at. This will work on La Liga (Spain), Serie A (Italy) and the  Bundesliga (Germany) as well as the Premier League.

The next available Premier League matches to be played are on w/e  23rd February. What I did next was to input the implied odds from the 1^st table (fig2) – (copy & paste) into another table for each match –   Then using this screen (fig 4) from oddschecker.com,  input the best  odds into the table.  (Fig 5)

fig #4

This is a good sample size 119 matches of which 34% had the result  home/home. As you can see the implied odds are 2.98, where as the best  price available in the Fulham v Stoke match is 3.75 @ Paddy Power. We  are getting 11/4 for what should be 2/1. This is a 37% advantage.

fig #5

Another potential angle could be Away/ Draw 40/1 best odds for 16/1  implied odds. This is a value bet, but may be a long time between drinks  if you bet at these odds and requires a different approach in terms of  staking if looking at backing at such big odds.

If you scan through the other prices in the table it is obvious which  the poor value bets are. You may also be dismissive of the data in  Home/Away – only 1 occurrence. But the sample size is consistent and it  is just very unlikely to happen. I would suspect the Betfair price will  be nearer to 119 implied odds than the stingy 60/1 the bookies are  offering. There are no Betfair prices included as they have not opened  the markets at time of writing this. But remember LAY bets are an option  too.

So we have done the analysis, found the value and located the best  price. A good practice to apply before you “push the button” is look for  some confirmation. The way I like to do this in this instance is to  look at the individual match in the BetFormPro pre match query tool.  What I am looking for is there are no big discrepancies between CvC  “generalisation” and the “Fulham v Stoke” for all we know Stoke may be  Fulham’s bogey team and Fulham haven’t beaten them since Sir Stanley  Matthews was a boy or Queen Victoria was on the throne. In that case we  walk away. There are plenty of other opportunities that will come our  way.

 fig #6

The above screenshot (fig 6) is from the pre match query for this match.

The bet we were interested in as mentioned above was home/home and  this shows excellent confirmation for the actual home v away form for  these two sides (as opposed to the generalised CvC sample we initially  looked at). You can see that the implied odds have come down to 2.11.  The BetFormPro value algorithm shows a 20% value bet which demands  attention.

I can now place this bet with the utmost confidence I am getting a great value bet with an excellent chance of success.

In addition to the Fulham v Stoke match there is potentially some  value in the Norwich v Everton and Man City v Chelsea matches, but  rather than do all the work I will leave that to you to find.

Conclusion

Certainly this approach to finding value betting opportunities works  well and pays dividends in the long term not just in this betting market  but in any betting markets.

This data crunching can all be done manually in Spreadsheets such as  MS Excel and is perfectly workable however Betform Pro simplifies and  speeds up the whole process across 60 betting markets and is still  available on a 28 Day FREE trial

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About the author – Follow Steve on twitter @itsamugsgame or his blog spot www.betbubbles.com/